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Sample chatMLB · Tonight
You
Help me analyze the Yankees O/U tonight based on pitcher matchups and schedule density.
Courtside
I.Get probable pitchersCarlos RodónSPBrayan BelloSP
II.Get player splitsRodónBello
III.Get bullpen usageYankeesRed Sox
What the numbers suggest
SoxatYankees
Yankees vs Red Sox · Total runs·-110·projects 9.8 runs
Wed, May 13, 7:05 PM EDT
VerdictLean Over+4.0% · lean
Implied
50.0%
de-vigged
Model
54.0%
med conf
EV / $100
+$3.09
expected return
Kelly suggests
$9 / $1k
per $1k bankroll
−5%0%5%10%
+4.0%slight
Not financial advice · probability estimates, not predictions · bet responsibly

Tonight at Yankee Stadium, hosts with the total set at 9.5 [1]. Our model projects 9.8 runs, a tilt toward the over.

Starting pitchers

  • (NYY): 3.94 ERA, 10.2 K/9, 1.15 WHIP across 56.2 IP this year [2]. Above-average control with strikeout stuff, but the model's variance comes from what happens after he leaves.
  • (BOS): 4.21 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 1.39 WHIP across 59 IP [3]. Walks are up and the WHIP suggests traffic on the bases.

Schedule density

The Yankees bullpen logged 4.2 IP last night [4]. Doval (closer), Bednar (setup), and Cruz (setup) are all on back-to-back use, leaving three important late-game arms effectively off-board. Boston's pen, by contrast, is on regular rest with only one inning thrown yesterday [5].

If this gets past the 6th inning, the Yankees are out of their three best relievers and Boston walks a ton. That's how this game gets to 10+ runs and the over hits.

01Sourced, every time

Every number, one hover from its source.

Citations are first-class. Stats carry citations that reveal the underlying data: the player, the team, the splits. No vibes, just receipts.

Scoring efficiency, starters with 25+ MPG, 2024-25
PlayerTeamPTSTS%USG%eFG%Net Rtg
26.2[50]66.4%[50]29.1%[50]61.8%[50]+10.2[50]
31.5[51]63.4%[51]32.8%[51]56.1%[51]+12.8[51]
30.2[52]61.0%[52]32.1%[52]55.4%[52]+4.6[52]
27.1[53]59.2%[53]28.4%[53]54.8%[53]+9.1[53]
26.4[54]58.6%[54]28.0%[54]53.9%[54]+6.2[54]
Fig. 01Stats table
02The verdict card

Every analysis ends with a single call.

Edge, implied probability, expected value, Kelly stake. Collapsed into one card with a lean or a pass. The math is transparent, the recommendation is clear.

What the numbers suggest
ShaiGilgeous-Alexander
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Points·-110·projects 33.4 pts
vs Denver Nuggets·Wed, May 13, 10:00 PM EDT
VerdictLean Over+7.5% · strong
Implied
50.0%
de-vigged
Model
57.5%
med conf
EV / $100
+$9.77
expected return
Kelly suggests
$20 / $1k
per $1k bankroll
−5%0%5%10%
+7.5%solid
Not financial advice · probability estimates, not predictions · bet responsibly
Fig. 02Verdict card
Player props · totals · spreads · moneylines · same card, same math
03DraftKings DFS, built in

Optimal lineups, five contest strategies.

Project fantasy points for every player on the slate, pick a strategy (chalk, moonshot, game stack, bring back, or steady), and the optimizer hands back the best lineup with salary, exposure, and diversity rules already enforced.

Chalk. Optimizes the projected median. Safe-floor build for cash games.
◆ChalkCash

Highest-projected player at each position. Pure expected value — consistency wins.

PosPlayerSalaryProjFPPGCeilP50+Val
PG
Quentin Grimes
PHI@NYK
$4,00040.7—85.024%10.2x
SG
Stephon Castle
SASvsMIN
$7,00037.8—68.513%5.4x
SF
Josh Hart
NYKvsPHI
$6,00034.0—70.610%5.7x
PF
Kyle Anderson
MIN@SAS
$3,20028.0—62.42%8.8x
C
Victor Wembanyama
SASvsMIN
$10,80049.5—90.048%4.6x
G
De'Aaron Fox
SASvsMIN
$6,90042.6—79.526%6.2x
F
Harrison Barnes
SASvsMIN
$3,10028.8—56.12%9.3x
UTIL
Anthony EdwardsQ
MIN@SAS
$8,70047.3—81.541%5.4x
Projected
308.7
Ceiling
593.7
Floor
137.1

Value Rank

Grimes
10.2x
Barnes
9.3x
Anderson
8.8x
Fox
6.2x

Top Projection

Wembanyama
49.5 pts · $10.8K

Best Value

Grimes
10.2x · +3.2 above avg
Fig. 03DFS lineups
Live DraftKings slate · cash and tournament builds · full reasoning per pick
What this optimizer catchesFour design choices
Vegas-anchored
Projection model

Recent-form trends blended with the Vegas-implied team total. The optimizer doesn't chase noise.

Long-tail
Floor and ceiling

Realistic downside that never dips below zero, with upside that captures the breakout games.

Strategy-aware
Five contest modes

Chalk, Moonshot, Game Stack, Bring-Back, and Steady, each tuned for a different kind of contest.

3+ unique
Diversity and exposure

Generate multiple lineups with at least three unique players between any two and configurable exposure caps.

Read why a player is in or out, swap the strategy, and re-build in seconds.

04Vision

How a shooter shoots.
How a pitcher pitches.

Ask where Paul Skenes hides his slider, or where Shai lives on the floor. The kind of scouting that used to take an analyst, now answered the moment you ask.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Shai
Gilgeous-Alexander
ThunderThunder•G
2024-25
Accuracy
Frequency
Hover hexes for frequency and accuracy
Fig. 04AShot chart
Paul Skenes
No pitch data available
Fig. 04BStrike zone
05Spatial

Where the ball ends up, and why it matters.

Every batted ball drawn at the spot it landed, colored by outcome. Useful for park shifts, platoon questions, and watching a hitter’s profile tilt in real time.

Aaron Judge
Yankees· OF· 2024· 389 batted balls
Fig. 05ASpray chart
Ronald Acuña Jr.
Braves· OF· 2023· 562 batted balls
Fig. 05BSpray chart
06Head to head

The matchup that actually matters.

Find the matchups that move the line. Compare any hitter against an opposing staff, any scorer against the defenders who actually guard him, and toggle metrics without ever leaving the card.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, matchup splits vs Denver

Guard · 6'6" · 4 G · 37.8 MPG vs DEN · 2024-25
Tracked-minute splits · playoff scouting set
DefenderTracked possessionsFG%Vs season average
Aaron Gordon
Aaron
GordonDEN
Forward · 6'8"
52.0
4 G · 18:24 tracked min
50.0%
16 FGA · 5 3PA
-3.5%
Jamal Murray
Jamal
MurrayDEN
Guard · 6'4"
41.0
4 G · 14:02 tracked min
42.9%
14 FGA · 4 3PA
-10.6%
Nikola Jokic
Nikola
JokicDEN
Center · 6'11"
38.0
4 G · 12:48 tracked min
63.6%
11 FGA · 3 3PA
+10.1%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Kentavious
Caldwell-PopeDEN
Guard · 6'5"
29.0
3 G · 9:36 tracked min
33.3%
9 FGA · 2 3PA
-20.2%
Michael Porter Jr.
Michael
Porter Jr.DEN
Forward · 6'10"
22.0
3 G · 7:18 tracked min
62.5%
8 FGA · 3 3PA
+9.0%
Fig. 06ADefender matchups
Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge vs Boston Red Sox pitching staff

OF · NYY · 2024
Career splits · toggle metric, inspect rows
PitcherAt-batswOBAVs season avg
Red Sox starters
Brayan Bello
Brayan
BelloBOS
RHP · SP
14
6 H · 3 HR · 2 K · 4 BB
.711
K% 11.1% · BB% 22.2%
+.233
Kutter Crawford
Kutter
CrawfordBOS
RHP · SP
11
3 H · 1 HR · 4 K · 2 BB
.445
K% 30.8% · BB% 15.4%
-.033
Tanner Houck
Tanner
HouckBOS
RHP · SP
9
1 H · 5 K · 1 BB
.182
K% 50.0% · BB% 10.0%
-.296
Nick Pivetta
Nick
PivettaBOS
RHP · SP
13
5 H · 2 HR · 3 K · 1 BB
.598
K% 21.4% · BB% 7.1%
+.120
Fig. 06BPitcher matchups
07Who uses it

Three ways people use it.

Built around workflows we actually live in. The layout, the cached bridges, and the citation chain all serve someone checking their work under deadline.

I.

The DFS grinder

  • Full DraftKings slate ingestion: salary, lock time, game matchup.
  • Projection pipeline with Vegas implied-total anchoring.
  • Optimizer with five contest strategies, diversity, and exposure caps.
  • Lineups visible in chat with full reasoning behind each pick.
II.

The prop bettor

  • Defender-matchup splits, platoon splits, park factors.
  • Game-log breakdowns with over/under on any stat line.
  • Opponent pace, defensive rating, and DVP baked into projections.
  • Implied-probability math you can scan, not re-derive.
III.

The analyst

  • Statcast, splits, advanced stats. All cached and source-linked.
  • Native code-exec sandbox for ad-hoc Python questions.
  • Citations link to raw tool output, not a press release.
  • Copy the methodology into the next memo; keep the trail.
08Coverage

Two leagues live today. More on the bench.

NBA and MLB are the full build: shot charts, Statcast, matchup tables, DFS optimizer, every tool enriched and cached. Tap a sport you want next, we weight the roadmap by demand.

Live now
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