Fixtures, groups, teams, players, odds and a transparent match model — explore the whole tournament without signing in, then take any question into chat.
Team strengths anchored to de-vigged title odds; every group fixture played with Poisson goals, tiebreakers applied, knockouts simulated.
Every bar splits a team's simulations by the round they were eliminated in — darker means deeper.
Conditional advance rates round-by-round, plus the opponents most likely to do the eliminating.
Bar = share of simulations eliminated at each stage · numerals are percentages
Malagón, Pineda
Illustrative example — live numbers appear here once the feed publishes them.
Players positioned from the formation string or supplied coordinates, both teams or one.
Confirmed starters, projected XIs and unavailable feeds are visually distinct.
No lineup feed yet? It says so, rather than inventing a lineup.
American and decimal odds with raw implied probability and the bookmaker vig.
Three-way de-vig for 1X2 — the draw is load-bearing, never a two-way moneyline.
Our Poisson model probability beside the fair line, with the lean and edge surfaced.
| Selection | Amer. | Dec. | Implied | Fair | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +125 | 2.25 | 44.4% | 41.0% | 50.3% | +9.3 pp | |
| Draw | +235 | 3.35 | 29.9% | 28.0% | 25.3% | -2.7 pp |
| +250 | 3.50 | 28.6% | 31.0% | 24.5% | -6.5 pp |
| Selection | Amer. | Dec. | Implied | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over2.5 | -105 | 1.95 | 51.2% | 50.0% |
| Under2.5 | -115 | 1.87 | 53.5% | 50.0% |
Probabilities and odds are modeled estimates for research and entertainment, not guaranteed outcomes. Always gamble responsibly. 21+ where applicable.
Illustrative example — live numbers appear here once the feed publishes them.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5+ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Covered probability mass: 100.0%.
An independent-Poisson matrix from each side's expected goals, shaded by likelihood.
Cells are tinted by outcome so the shape of the match reads at a glance.
Match-result, over/under and both-teams-to-score probabilities derived from the grid.
Played, won, drawn, lost, goals for/against, goal difference and points.
Probability of advancing from the group, from the futures simulation.
Team names open a detail sidebar or the full team page.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 | 94% | |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 58% | |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 | 41% | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | 7% |
Top two advance; the eight best third-placed teams also qualify
Illustrative example — live numbers appear here once the feed publishes them.
Take any thread deeper with the World Cup agent — cited, model-backed answers.
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